Where will the market go next?

Last week the 50 day moving average of the S&P 500, dipped below its 200 day moving average. In the financial world, this is known as the "looming death cross". Jim Cramer wrote a funny blog about it here. As you can tell from the graph of the last 10 years of the S&P 500, this has only happened 5 other times, and at least 2 of those times it directly preceded a recession (2001, and 2008).



So are we doomed to be double dipping into another recession? My thought is no. First, we are already in one, and the two times it preceded the recession were relatively good times for the market, which is not the case now. Secondly, I believe that the cross between the moving averages simply signifies change, of any kind, in the market, good or bad. And if I have some time I would like to look into its significance from a time analysis point of view. Both of the times when the "looming death cross" occurred but did not signify a recession, the 50 day MA was able to cross back above the 200 day MA within 1 or 2 months. So, my thought is that that second cross will occur in this case as well within the next few months. If however, it does not occur, we will all have greater things to worry about than markets!